Overview
Margins do not fail in isolation. A change introduced anywhere in a system ? a new requirement, a different supplier, or a redesigned subassembly ? tends to propagate along the couplings between components.
This module captures couplings as a Design Structure Matrix (DSM) and runs Clarkson's Change Prediction Method (CPM) on it. The result is a matrix of combined risk values showing how likely change is to propagate through the network, and how large the expected impact is.
The CPM method
3The module follows Clarkson's CPM with a margin-focused interpretation of propagation risk.
For each ordered pair of components, capture the probability that a change in the source will require a change in the target.
Capture the average severity of the propagated change: the likely size of the redesign triggered across an interface.
Compose direct probabilities along all paths to produce combined likelihood, impact, and risk matrices.
What the module supports
Add components, group them into subsystems, and edit direct likelihood and impact in a matrix view.
Visualise CPM results as a heatmap on the same DSM to spot hotspots and dominant paths.
Inspect incoming and outgoing risk for any component, ranked by likelihood, impact, or combined risk.
Edit a direct coupling and see how the combined-risk matrix responds before committing to a redesign.